📬 Welcome to The NASDAQ Playbook - Read This First
Welcome. Here is everything you need to know to get started.
Hey,
Welcome to The NASDAQ Playbook.
I am genuinely glad you are here and I want to make sure you actually know what you signed up for, what you will receive, and how to get the most out of this newsletter from day one.
So let me be direct.
What This Is
The NASDAQ Playbook is a rules-based trading system for TQQQ — the ProShares UltraQQQ, a 3x leveraged Nasdaq ETF. The system uses three independent modules, each with defined entry and exit logic, to determine when to be invested in TQQQ and when to hold cash.
No discretion. No macro opinions. No market forecasts. The system reads the tape at end of day and produces a binary answer: in or out.
The goal is not to be invested all the time. The goal is to be invested during the right conditions and completely flat during the wrong ones. That distinction simple in theory, extraordinarily difficult to maintain in practice without rules is the entire foundation of what we do here.
What You Will Receive
Every Saturday: The Weekly Update. This covers the current state of all three modules, the exact exposure level, and what the system is watching heading into the next week. This is the core of the newsletter. It goes out every Saturday without exception.
Every time a module triggers: A Trade Alert. This goes out the same evening the signal fires, before the next open. You will know the module, the direction, the allocation, and the reasoning. These alerts are time-sensitive — the whole point is to act at the same end-of-day price the system uses.
Regularly throughout the week: Educational posts, system deep dives, backtest analyses, and market context pieces. These help you understand the system more deeply over time and are available to free subscribers as well.
If you are a Founding Member: Full access to the Conviction Portfolio, our long-term equity portfolio documented in real time. Monthly updates, position rationale, and thesis checks every time something changes.
The Three Modules
The system runs three independent modules. Each has its own logic, weight, and trigger conditions. Together they determine total exposure.
Module 1 -- 50% weight. The primary trend engine. This module drives the majority of the system’s long-term return and uses a long-term trend filter on the broader market to determine whether conditions justify leveraged exposure. When Module 1 is on, we are at minimum 50% invested.
Module 2 -- 25% weight. The validation layer. This module confirms momentum and directional strength before adding to the position. It acts as a secondary check on the trend identified by Module 1.
Module 3 -- 25% weight. The crash gate. This module operates on different logic and is designed specifically for mean-reversion and oversold entry conditions. It can trigger independently of Modules 1 and 2.
Total exposure at any time is the sum of active modules: 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100%. When no modules are active, we are 100% in cash.
What You Should Know About the System
The win rate is 28%. The system loses on almost three out of every four trades. This sounds alarming until you understand the asymmetry: average winning trades return roughly +13%, average losing trades cost roughly -2%. The math works over time because the winners are large and the losers are small and controlled.
The system will be in cash a lot. Historically, Module 1 has been out of the market approximately 30% of the time. Those cash periods are not failures. They are the mechanism that prevents the kind of drawdowns that make leveraged ETF investing unsurvivable. In a 3x product, a 70% drawdown requires a +233% gain just to break even. We have never gotten close to that because the system steps aside before conditions deteriorate that far.
There will be losing trades. The system took two stop losses during the Iran war correction in early 2026 before moving to full cash. Both were correct decisions that limited damage relative to what holding through the correction would have produced. Losing trades that respect the stop loss are not failures. They are the system functioning.
How to Use This Newsletter
Read the Weekly Update every Saturday. It is the most important thing we publish. Even if you do not act on anything, knowing the current module status keeps you informed about where the system stands and what it is watching for.
Act on Trade Alerts promptly. The alerts go out the same evening the signal fires so that you can execute at end-of-day prices the following session. The system uses end-of-day prices. The closer you are to that execution, the closer your results will track the system.
Use the educational content to build conviction. The system will have drawdowns. It will be in cash for weeks at a time while the market rallies. Those periods are easier to navigate when you understand why the rules exist. The deeper your understanding of the system, the less likely you are to override it at exactly the wrong moment.
Do not override the system. This sounds obvious. It is the hardest part. When the system is in cash and the market is rallying, the instinct to re-enter early is powerful. When the system is in a losing trade, the instinct to exit before the stop fires is powerful. Both instincts are wrong more often than they are right. The rules exist because human judgment in leveraged ETF environments is systematically biased toward expensive mistakes.
One Last Thing
The system is not perfect. No system is. But it has a 27-year track record of producing asymmetric returns through some of the most difficult market environments in modern history. The goal is not to be right every time. The goal is to be right enough, and small when wrong, for long enough that the compounding does the rest.
I am glad you are here. Now let’s get to work.
Best,
Felix
Founder of The NASDAQ Playbook
Disclaimer
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, or to engage in any investment strategy. Any views expressed reflect the author's personal opinions and research at the time of writing and may change without notice. All backtested performance data is simulated and does not represent actual trading results — past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Leveraged ETFs such as TQQQ are complex instruments that carry significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. The author may personally hold positions in one or more of the securities mentioned in this publication. This should be considered a potential conflict of interest. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Before acting on any information in this publication, you should conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial professional, tax advisor, or legal advisor.