How to Start with The NASDAQ Playbook
A practical, end-of-day guide for new readers (with White Paper + Independent Backtest)
The NASDAQ Playbook unites two return engines: EOD trading in 3× Nasdaq-100 (TQQQ) — Core 50%, Turn 25%, Crash 25% — one decision at the U.S. close, weekly update every Saturday, ~27% CAGR backtested since 1999; and a curated Long-Term Portfolio (Inner Circle) with monthly reviews plus bi-weekly “Prime Buys Now” and clear entry badges 🟢 Accumulable • 🟡 Hold • 🔴 Extended.
1) Start Here: What you’re joining
The NASDAQ Playbook is a rules-based, end-of-day (EOD) system that trades a single instrument—TQQQ, the 3× leveraged Nasdaq-100 ETF—using three complementary models that specialize in different market regimes (trend persistence, turns, and crash defense). In an independent, third-party backtest covering April 1999 to June 2025, the combined approach delivered ~28% CAGR (27.96%) with drawdowns far smaller than passive Nasdaq exposure while operating with EOD simplicity.
That independence matters. The performance in the paper you can download below wasn’t drawn in Excel or retrofitted after the fact; it was produced on PortfolioVisualizer with full methodology, trade assumptions (EOD signals, next-close execution), costs, and stress tests.
Download:
White Paper (PDF) — Overview + system design + publishing cadence.
Independent Backtest (PDF, 17 pages) — Third-party report with equity, drawdowns, risk/return metrics, and crisis episodes.
2) Why EOD trading—and why this is feasible with a full-time job
You make one decision per day. Signals are evaluated after the U.S. close; Trade Alerts are posted shortly after the bell; execution is designed as soon as possible. No intraday screens. No discretionary overrides. That’s the whole point: a repeatable routine that is realistic for busy professionals and the exact assumption used in the independent backtest.
Cadence you can expect:
Trade Alerts: on signal days, posted shortly after the U.S. cash close.
Weekly Update (Saturday): what changed, why it changed, and what would confirm/ invalidate the current read.
Occasional “Letter to My Subscribers” + FAQ: context, education, and policy clarifications. (You’re reading a “how to start” letter right now.)
3) Read this first (non-negotiable): the White Paper + Backtest
Before you place a single trade, read the White Paper and skim the Backtest. Here’s what to look for:
System architecture: three models, fixed weights, and EOD decision flow. You’ll see the layered logic—trend engine (Base Model), turn engine (RSI+MACD/Heikin-Ashi validation), and crash defense—each with its specific mandate.
Evidence: the PortfolioVisualizer report lays out CAGR, max drawdown, best/worst years, rolling returns, and worst stress periods. Example headline numbers: 27.96% annualized, max drawdown −49.51%, standard deviation 42.61%, and crisis-period behavior versus QQQ/buy-and-hold.
Assumptions you can actually follow: EOD signals.
When you understand those three items, you’ll know exactly what to expect when the model says “in,” “out,” or “standby.”
4) The cleanest way to begin (my personal recommendation)
Start with 20% of your investable capital allocated to this strategy. Two reasons:
Behavioral safety. Even with disciplined drawdown control, TQQQ is a high-volatility vehicle. A 20% initial slice ensures that routine whipsaws or modest losses don’t push you to override rules. Systems work only if you can stick with them through an entire series of trades.
Self-weighting through performance. If the strategy continues to deliver the long-term profile evidenced in testing (high returns with controlled left-tail risk), your account weighting naturally increases as it compounds, without you forcing it. Said differently: let results earn the right to a higher weight.
You can revisit your target weight after you have 90 days of flawless execution under your belt.
5) Pick your entry method—and don’t build a second system around it
Choose one of these three and commit:
Immediate alignment: mirror the model at the next close. Fastest way to match live signals from Day 1.
Staged alignment: build to full target size over three closes (three days or three weekly closes). Reduces timing luck while keeping you on-track fast.
Shadow → align: “paper-trade” the signals for 2–4 weeks to learn the workflow, then align on the next signal. Maximum confidence, minimal FOMO.
Whichever you choose, don’t improvise intraday and don’t “wait for a better price.” The edge is the process, not the last tick. (This discipline and EOD timing is the exact assumption in the backtest.)
6) Your daily/weekly routine (the 1-minute version)
After the U.S. close: check the alert.
Place orders.
Saturday: read the Weekly Update to understand which criteria are met or missing across the three models.
That’s it. If a signal doesn’t change, you do nothing. The system is intentionally low-burden and end-of-day.
7) What each model does (and why there are three)
Base Model (50%) — The Trend Engine.
Built to ride durable uptrends with very low turnover, it prioritizes confirmation and unambiguous exits when trend integrity breaks. In isolation (1999–2025 backtest window), it delivers strong long-term returns but can give back gains during chop—hence the need for complementary logic.
Trend Validation / Turn Model (25%) — The Radar.
Uses Heikin-Ashi structure and momentum/oscillator overlays (e.g., RSI/MACD) to recognize inflection points earlier than the Base, improving behavior around V-shaped turns and reducing time spent in deteriorating regimes.
Micro-Move Capture (25%) — The Impulse Module.
Harvests short, high-energy bursts that appear during expansionary phases; exits swiftly when impulse decays. It accepts small, frequent “premiums” (controlled losses) to avoid large drawdowns - especially important in a 3× instrument.
These three models are uncorrelated by behavior, not by ticker. That is how we get the blend: persist in uptrends, respond to turns, and defend the left tail without diluting focus across assets. The combined profile (1999–2025) is what you saw in the independent report: high annualized returns with materially smaller drawdowns versus passive exposure.
8) Expectations: what “good” looks like in real life
You will see small losses. Think of them as insurance premiums that prevent participation in major drawdowns. The backtest details just how damaging static exposure can be (e.g., Nasdaq’s –81% drawdown in the dot-com bust and multi-year recovery), and why disciplined withdrawal converts leverage from a liability into an edge.
You will also experience quiet periods with no signals. That’s not inactivity; that’s selectivity. The Base Model trades just a few times per year, by design, while the overlays pick their moments. The measured frequency you see live is consistent with the historical profile in the report.
Most importantly, you should expect clarity: the same signals for everyone, an audit trail in Weekly Updates, and a paper trail you can hand to a skeptical friend. If anything changes in the rules (rare), we document the change, the reason, and the side-by-side results.
9) Execution details (so you can be 100% operational on Day 1)
If possible, buy in the aftermarket, but if you can't manage that, you can also buy the next morning. Statistically speaking, it doesn't make much difference.
10) Risk, sizing, and the psychology of sticking with it
Sizing: start with 20% of investable capital. If the process proves itself in your hands over 60–90 days, consider scaling gradually. The model’s historical returns mean it self-weights over time without you forcing it.
Risk: leveraged ETFs are volatile; even with rules, expect drawdowns. The report shows worst-case periods and recovery times so you can calibrate expectations before you need them.
Psychology: the temptation will be to override signals after a string of small losses or to “front-run” a signal after a strong day. Resist both. The outperformance in the backtest comes from relentless adherence to EOD logic -not from clever exceptions.
11) Your 30/60/90-day ramp plan
Days 0–30 — Read the White Paper and the Backtest; choose Immediate, Staged, or Shadow entry; execute exactly as specified; log your fills and emotions.
Days 31–60 — Keep following the signals mechanically; read the Saturday notes to tie behavior to each model’s role; verify your fills vs close.
Days 61–90 — Review: Was your execution consistent? Were drawdowns psychologically manageable? If yes, consider scaling toward your long-term target; if stress was high, scale down, not out. The goal is decade-long adherence, not a perfect month.
12) Common mistakes to avoid
Turning one loss into two. When the system exits, you exit. No negotiation.
Mixing narratives with rules. Earnings, macro headlines, and social media will try to lure you into overrides. Decline the invitation.
Changing the plan mid-stream. Pick an entry method and stick to it. The model already balances trend capture, turn capture, and defense.
13) Why the White Paper + Backtest are attached to this post (and why you should keep them)
Because clarity compounds. The White Paper shows the design intent and daily/weekly workflow; the Backtest proves the historical behavior across four crisis regimes and 25+ years of data with third-party verification. If a friend or colleague asks “why this, why now, why EOD?”, you can hand them both and say, “Judge the process on its documentation.”
Download them now:
14) Final words
If you’ve read this far, you’re exactly the kind of reader this model was built for: someone who values process over prediction and wants a low-burden, high-clarity way to participate in tech’s upside while controlling the left tail. Start with 20%, follow one of the three entry paths, and let the routine do the heavy lifting. Read the White Paper, skim the Backtest, and make your first decision at the next close - not because the market is screaming, but because the rules say it’s time.
I’ll handle the signals. You handle the discipline.
Best,
Felix
Founder of The Nasdaq Playbook
📌 Disclaimer
This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investments carry risks, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
Needed this ty - ivr been on sideline watching TQQQ but not knowing what to do being new much appreciated
Very interesting! Since TQQQ began in 2010 is the assumption from 1999-2010 just 3x the NDQ?