Weekly NASDAQ Model Update - August 09, 2026: +27% CAGR Since 1999 - Today’s Signals & Stance
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📅 Date: 09.08.2026
The economy lost jobs in July. Stocks loved it.
That’s not a typo and it’s not me being cute. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that the US actually shed 23,000 jobs last month, nowhere close to the 83,000 gain economists were expecting. Unemployment ticked down to 4.1% anyway, mostly because fewer people were looking for work, not because more people found it. Normally a number like that would spook a market. This time it did the opposite. Wall Street decided a weakening labor market means the Fed has less reason to worry about inflation and more room to eventually ease up, and stocks took off from there.
The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,757.64 Friday, its first close above 7,700 ever earlier in the week and now comfortably past it. The Nasdaq jumped 1.3% Friday alone to close at 26,690.62. For the week, the Nasdaq gained somewhere around 5%, the S&P added roughly 3.5%, and the Dow tacked on close to 3% too. Semiconductors led it. The chip-focused SOXX index finished the week up more than 7%, a real turnaround from the beating that sector took in July.
It wasn’t a completely straight line to get there. Thursday was actually a down day, investors got cautious over some mixed earnings and kept glancing at oil prices and the Middle East situation. But Friday’s jobs surprise erased that hesitation fast, and the week ended up being one of the strongest of the summer.
I keep thinking about how weird this is to explain to someone who doesn’t follow markets closely. Fewer jobs, same rally. Bad news, up week. That’s just where sentiment sits right now, hanging almost entirely on what the Fed might or might not do next.
So: a scary Wednesday, a euphoric Thursday and Friday, and a bond market quietly sounding an alarm nobody wants to talk about yet. That was the week.
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📌 What I'm Watching Next Week
Inflation data is back on the calendar, and after a jobs report this weak, the market’s read on it could go either direction. If inflation comes in soft too, the “Fed has room to ease” story gets stronger and this rally probably has legs. If it comes in hot, people are going to start asking uncomfortable questions about why the labor market is losing jobs while prices are still climbing, and that combination has an ugly name attached to it that I don’t need to spell out.
For the system, both Module 1 and Module 3 are on solid footing right now, well clear of their stops after this week’s move. If Module 2 gets a clean signal, that would take us to full exposure. If next week’s data turns the mood sour again, the stops are where they’ve always been and the system will do what it always does.
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Have a good weekend.
Best,
Felix
Founder of The NASDAQ Playbook
Disclaimer
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, or to engage in any investment strategy. Any views expressed reflect the author's personal opinions and research at the time of writing and may change without notice. All backtested performance data is simulated and does not represent actual trading results — past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Leveraged ETFs such as TQQQ are complex instruments that carry significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. The author may personally hold positions in one or more of the securities mentioned in this publication. This should be considered a potential conflict of interest. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Before acting on any information in this publication, you should conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial professional, tax advisor, or legal advisor.