Weekly NASDAQ Model Update - June 27, 2026: +27% CAGR Since 1999 - Today’s Signals & Stance
Our Tactical NASDAQ Model turned $10K into over $6 million with 27% annual returns since 1999 - crushing the NASDAQ. This week’s update reveals the model’s current position, market signals, and more.
📅 Date: 27.06.2026
The AI trade finally cracked. The rest of the market mostly held.
This was the worst week for tech since the early-June selloff. The Nasdaq Composite fell 4.6% on the week, closing Friday at 25,298, its fifth consecutive losing session. But the story underneath the headline number is more nuanced, and it matters.
The selling was concentrated, not broad. The catalyst was a global memory-chip crash that started in Asia. South Korea’s Kospi triggered a circuit breaker after an 8% plunge, with Samsung and SK Hynix collapsing. That rolled into US chips: Micron, despite reporting blowout earnings with revenue up huge on the AI memory boom, fell 6.7% on the week as investors sold the news. Add a New York Times report that OpenAI may delay its IPO to 2027, fresh worries about spiraling AI data-center costs, and a Bank of America note warning of up to three rate hikes, and the AI complex took a real beating.
But here is what kept this from becoming a true rout: money rotated rather than fled. On most days this week, advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones even as the Nasdaq fell, a sign investors were moving into defensive names, industrials, and value rather than selling everything. The Dow actually rose 0.6% on the week and closed near a record high above 51,800. The Russell 2000 hit a record earlier in the week.
And Friday brought genuine relief on the macro front. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, came in cooler than expected month over month. Oil collapsed to near $70, the lowest since the Middle East conflict began, as the Strait of Hormuz reopened and tankers flowed freely. Lower oil eases the exact inflation pressure that made the Fed hawkish. The five-year inflation expectations in the Michigan survey plunged.
So the picture is mixed: a real AI-trade correction, but with cooling inflation, falling oil, and healthy rotation underneath. For the system, the week brought one exit.
Full module status, current exposure, and what the system needs to see before the next entry, available for paid subscribers below.
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Model Status & Allocation
📌 What we are watching into July
The macro setup is actually improving even as tech struggles. Cooler PCE, oil at $70, and falling inflation expectations all reduce the pressure on the Fed that drove the hawkish June meeting. If that continues, the rate-hike fears that have weighed on the market could ease.
The risk is the AI trade itself. The concern this week was not macro, it was whether AI infrastructure spending is sustainable and whether valuations got ahead of themselves. That question will not be resolved quickly. Watch the chip names, Nvidia, Micron, Broadcom, for signs of stabilization or further unwinding.
Next week is holiday-shortened with markets closed Friday July 3 for Independence Day, and the June jobs report is the key data point. For the system, the focus is on Module 1’s stop and on whether Modules 2 and 3 generate fresh entry signals if the tape stabilizes. If the selloff deepens and Module 1’s stop breaks, the system moves toward cash. If the market finds its footing, the exited modules can re-enter.
We came into the week at 75%, took one controlled loss, and sit at 50%. The core position holds, the macro backdrop is improving, and the system is positioned to respond either way.
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Have a good weekend.
Best,
Felix
Founder of The NASDAQ Playbook
Disclaimer
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, or to engage in any investment strategy. Any views expressed reflect the author's personal opinions and research at the time of writing and may change without notice. All backtested performance data is simulated and does not represent actual trading results — past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Leveraged ETFs such as TQQQ are complex instruments that carry significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. The author may personally hold positions in one or more of the securities mentioned in this publication. This should be considered a potential conflict of interest. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Before acting on any information in this publication, you should conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial professional, tax advisor, or legal advisor.